Martin Jaeger, head of Germany’s foreign intelligence service, the BND, has warned that escalating tensions with Russia could push Germany toward a violent confrontation.
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Speaking at a public session of the Bundestag, Jaeger said Moscow was expanding its hybrid war against European democracies and that the confrontation with Russia had entered a “newer and more dangerous” phase.
“Germany is at risk of becoming involved in a violent conflict with Russia,” he told German lawmakers, also citing the recent incident at Leipzig airport as one of the threats facing Berlin.
According to Jaeger, the risk is not limited to a traditional military attack. It includes a range of coordinated actions, including drone attacks, sabotage, cyberattacks and other forms of hybrid warfare.
The BND chief said Moscow now views Germany as a major obstacle to its ambitions in Europe.
According to Anadolu Agency, Jaeger said that “no other country currently poses such a direct, comprehensive and concrete threat to Germany.” He added that Berlin had not sought this confrontation.
His assessment is directly linked to Germany’s position on the war in Ukraine. Jaeger argued that the country had become a target of Russian actions because of its opposition to what Berlin regards as Moscow’s expansionist policies and because of its support for Ukraine.
The warning came just one day after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz visited Kyiv, where he announced a new military aid package for Ukraine worth around 1 billion euros. During the visit, Merz said Germany would neither be intimidated nor back down from supporting Ukraine.
One of the cases Jaeger cited to illustrate the threat was the August incident at Leipzig/Halle Airport.
German authorities said that a drone carrying explosives and equipped with a detonation mechanism had been found near Ukrainian cargo aircraft in the airport’s secure area. Leipzig/Halle serves as an important hub for transporting military aid to Ukraine.
The incident has increased concerns in Germany about activities that authorities describe as part of hybrid warfare.
Euronews has also reported on a combination of threats against Germany, including sabotage, espionage, disinformation and drone attacks. Chancellor Merz and government ministers have stressed that Germany is not at war with Russia, but is facing hybrid actions that Berlin attributes to Moscow.
German authorities have raised the threat level associated with these activities. Officials warn that identifying them is particularly difficult, as it is often impossible to immediately determine who is responsible or whether separate incidents are part of the same campaign.
Despite the strong language used by the intelligence chief, German and European media outlets stress that Germany is not currently at war with Russia.
Deutsche Welle has noted that Berlin considers itself a target of hybrid operations, but that there is no declared armed conflict between the two countries. Germany has not declared war on Russia, and the article has not been activated.
This clarification is important because Jaeger’s statement does not mean that a German-Russian war is beginning, but rather that German security services are taking the possibility of escalation seriously.
According to Deutsche Welle, German security experts describe the situation as an intensifying confrontation in the “gray zone.” In this space, states can use sabotage, cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns and other operations without necessarily moving into open warfare.
Another important point in Jaeger’s statement was that Germany had not sought confrontation with Russia. According to him, Moscow considers Berlin one of its main adversaries because of its role in Europe and its support for Ukraine.
The BND chief described the situation as a qualitative change in the threat and warned that Russian activities should no longer be treated as isolated incidents.
In this context, the suspected drone incident in Leipzig is viewed by German authorities as an example of how a hybrid conflict can approach the territory of a NATO member state.
The German warning comes at a time when several European countries have raised the alarm over Russian activity.
At the end of September, Russia warned NATO that it could also use nuclear weapons if the alliance attempted to isolate or attack Kaliningrad, the Russian exclave on the Baltic Sea. Moscow has accused NATO of pursuing a “dangerous and reckless” course and warned of the consequences of a direct conflict.
Meanwhile, European leaders have spoken about an increase in Russian hybrid activities. Chancellor Merz said in recent days that Europe was preparing for further hybrid attacks, including more serious scenarios.
In this climate, the BND chief’s statement is seen as a signal that the concern is related not only to the war in Ukraine, but also to the possibility that the confrontation between Russia and the West could widen. He has also said that Moscow will seek to attack NATO countries.
Russia, for its part, has repeatedly denied claims that it intends to attack NATO countries.
According to Reuters, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that Russia threatens no one and has no plan to attack NATO countries. He added that Moscow would respond if it considered itself under attack.
Thus, statements from Berlin and Moscow offer two completely opposing versions of the security situation in Europe. Germany speaks of a growing threat and an intensification of Russian hybrid operations, while Russia denies any plan to launch aggression against NATO.
Martin Jaeger’s assessment carries particular weight because it comes from the head of Germany’s foreign intelligence service rather than from a politician or analyst.
The BND is one of Germany’s main security institutions, and its analyses are used by the authorities to assess threats to the country.
During the latest Bundestag session, the heads of Germany’s intelligence services presented a worrying picture of the situation. Jaeger spoke of the risk of a violent conflict with Russia and stressed that the threat to Germany had become more direct.
For Berlin, the question is no longer limited to the possibility of a physical attack on German territory. It also concerns the extent to which hybrid warfare could expand, from cyberattacks and sabotage to the use of drones, espionage and influence operations.
In this sense, Jaeger’s statement reflects a new reality in European security. A direct conflict between NATO and Russia has not occurred, but German intelligence warns that the possibility of the current confrontation entering a more violent phase must not be overlooked.
