With just two weeks to go before the midterm elections in the United States, Democrats see an opportunity to change the makeup of Congress. Polls suggest they could compete even in areas that have traditionally supported Republicans.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump is stepping up his campaign activities in an effort to boost turnout among Republican voters and avoid losing control of both chambers of Congress.
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Democrats hope the vote, which takes place in 14 days, will bring a “blue wave” and give them a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. In the latest ABC News and The Washington Post poll, they lead by nearly 10 percentage points in the overall preference among voters.
Hopes have also been buoyed by close races in Texas, Kansas, Alaska and Iowa, states that usually vote Republican. However, it is unclear whether the polls accurately measure Democratic turnout or overstate support for the party.
For Republicans, losing either chamber would have significant consequences: the Trump administration would find it harder to carry out its political and legislative goals.
Traditionally, the president’s party loses seats in the House of Representatives in midterm elections. This pattern has been seen, among other years, in 1994, 2010 and 2018.
In 1994, Democrats lost 54 seats in the House of Representatives, paving the way for what became known as the “Republican Revolution.” During Barack Obama’s presidency, they lost 63 seats in 2010. In 2018, during Trump’s first presidency, Republicans lost 41 seats.
However, results in the House of Representatives and the Senate do not always follow the same trend. Republicans lost the House in 2018 but gained seats in the Senate. In 2022, Democrats improved their position in the Senate, even as then-President Joe Biden faced an unfavorable political climate.
Races expected to be decided by narrow margins are drawing particular attention. Democrats are aiming to gain support in Texas, Kansas, Alaska and Iowa while trying to hold their ground in Michigan, Georgia and New Hampshire.
In North Carolina, Democratic support has rallied around former governor Roy Cooper. In Georgia, the party is seeking to hold the seat represented by Senator Jon Ossoff.
Democrat James Talarico is running in Texas, where his party has not won a Senate seat since 1988. In Kansas, Democrats are backing pastor Adam Hamilton in the hope of breaking a long-standing electoral tradition.
Still, close polling does not guarantee victory. In Kansas in 2014, independent candidate Greg Orman was ahead of Republican Senator Pat Roberts in several polls, but Roberts was re-elected.
Trump has responded to growing Democratic optimism by increasing his rallies and public appearances, aiming to mobilize his Republican base. His schedule includes visits to Ohio, Texas, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Alaska.
NPR reports that many of these stops are in states that traditionally vote Republican. This reflects the president’s effort to ensure his supporters turn out even in areas where he won by a considerable margin in 2024.
Former President Barack Obama is also expected to campaign, with an appearance in Detroit, Michigan. He will support Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed and gubernatorial candidate Jocelyn Benson, aiming to encourage Democratic voters ahead of the election.
If the opposition wins a majority in either chamber of Congress, Trump’s government will face greater congressional scrutiny. Committees led by Democrats could expand investigations and hearings into the administration’s activities, while passing legislation and negotiating the budget could become more complicated.
Democratic control of both chambers would be a major political blow to Republicans and give Democrats the opportunity to block progress on the president’s agenda.
However, the outcome has yet to be decided. Democrats hope dissatisfaction with the Trump administration will be reflected in the vote, while Republicans are counting on mobilizing their electorate to avoid another major midterm loss.
