A Republican defeat in the U.S. midterm elections, coupled with greater Democratic influence in Congress, is expected to have a significant impact on Washington’s political landscape and its relations with Europe.
Politico’s analysis suggests that the final two years of Donald Trump’s presidency could bring sharper clashes with European allies, greater uncertainty over the future of the war in Ukraine and deeper political tensions within the United States.
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Democrats will have more tools to block or put pressure on Trump administration initiatives through congressional investigations, the budget approval process and congressional oversight. That does not mean, however, that the U.S. president will lose his role in foreign policy.
Trump retains significant powers over diplomacy, national security and trade. He can also rely on executive orders to pursue his goals, leading analysts to believe that an electoral defeat could push him toward an even more confrontational approach to international relations.
Politico outlines five scenarios that could shape developments in Europe and beyond over the next two years.
1. Trump could increase pressure on Europe
One of the scenarios considered most likely is an intensification of U.S. pressure on European allies.
Wolfgang Ischinger, a German diplomat and former president of the Munich Security Conference, says the election result should not be interpreted as a sign that transatlantic relations will improve.
In his view, European countries should be prepared for more demands and tensions from the Trump administration.
While a Congress with greater Democratic control could challenge presidential decisions, Trump may use foreign policy to show that he is still in control.
Politico notes that Europe has long been a target of criticism from Trump and supporters of the MAGA movement, who have called for changes in relations between the United States and European countries.
2. U.S. support for Ukraine could expand
Greater Democratic influence in Congress could pave the way for more U.S. aid to Ukraine. Most Democrats have consistently supported sending weapons and providing financial assistance to Kyiv.
That does not mean, however, that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky can expect an immediate shift in Washington’s policy.
Bronwen Maddox, director of the British institute Chatham House, warns that Ukraine should not expect a swift rescue. Even if Democrats vote to increase aid, including financial support, implementing those decisions could take months or even years.
Meanwhile, Kyiv urgently needs military equipment, particularly missiles for Patriot systems, which are crucial to its air defenses against continuing Russian attacks.
3. The possibility of a peace deal favoring Russia
Another scenario concerns Trump’s aim to end the war in Ukraine and build an image as a president who resolves international conflicts.
But his positions toward Kyiv and Moscow raise doubts about the terms such a deal might contain.
Kurt Volker, a former U.S. diplomat, warns that Trump may disregard objections from Ukraine and European allies. According to Volker, the president could ease sanctions on Russia and restore economic ties with Moscow.
Volker says Trump could ask the Treasury Department to stop enforcing some sanctions and could also consider new energy-sector agreements with Russia. Trump has also discussed the return of major U.S. companies to the Russian market.
In Volker’s assessment, Trump is less likely to carry out threats to withdraw the United States from NATO or sharply reduce U.S. troop numbers in Europe, because such a move would not secure enough political support within the United States.
4. Europe could face a more severe energy crisis
The energy crisis linked to the confrontation between the United States and Iran is another factor that could directly affect Europe.
Politico suggests that if Washington and Tehran fail to reach an agreement allowing the Strait of Hormuz to reopen, energy prices could remain high. That would add to the pressure on European economies and the cost of living.
The consequences could also affect air travel. Michael O’Leary, Ryanair’s chief executive, has warned that without an agreement, the industry could face a full-blown crisis by March or April of next year.
For Trump, the situation would present a difficult choice: resume military operations in the hope of forcing Tehran to make concessions, withdraw from the confrontation or abandon efforts to resolve the crisis.
New military action could drive energy prices even higher and would be unpopular in the United States, particularly after a Republican election defeat.
5. Domestic conflicts could dominate Washington’s agenda
The fifth scenario envisages a prolonged period of political clashes in the United States, with domestic issues taking center stage and pushing foreign policy into the background.
Democrats are expected to launch wide-ranging investigations into the Trump administration’s decisions during the first two years of his second term. Robert Garcia, a Democratic representative and possible candidate to lead the House Oversight Committee, has warned Trump’s political opponents to prepare for the confrontation.
Some Democratic Party figures, however, have urged against another attempt to impeach the president. They argue that Democrats should focus on the economy, raising the federal minimum wage and adopting new ethics rules for government institutions.
Politico’s John F. Harris writes that the clashes may not be confined to Republicans and Democrats. They could also emerge within each party as both try to define their strategy for the post-Trump era.
In conclusion, the final two years of Trump’s presidency could be marked by political instability in Washington. At the same time, Europe will face uncertainty over U.S. support for security, the war in Ukraine and the management of the energy crisis.
